Since the internal conflict that ousted TNG’s first Prime Minister (Dr. Galayr), it was quite apparent that Mr. Abdikassim’s unpopular government was cruising rudderless in strong political currents. Incorrigible ideological disparity between the TNG president and his prominent members of parliament that permeated enough to damage his leadership credibility, and finally bogged down his government before the end of its term was the nucleus of TNG crisis. The difference was incorrigible because powerful systemic mafia rules (rival drug syndicates) and other Mogadishu business barons were part of the problem. These mafia cartels are also responsible for the mysterious socio-economic problems and the hostile living conditions that devastated the city of Mogadishu and the neighboring regions. The controversy between Abdikassim and his caucus revolved around the issues that called for the empowerment of the government edifice (institutions) to maintain law and order in an effort to quail the systemic civil disobedience and the mafia rules. Let us see if some past events can enlighten the contemporary problems.

In the year 2000, when the Djibouti-held peace process that culminated in the formation of the TNG materialized, rumors surfaced that a business venture orchestrated by special interest groups led by Mogadishu and Djibouti based businessmen is behind the peace agenda. Again when the plan to dwell the transitional parliament in the city of Baidowa was thwarted by Abdikassim’s unilateral decision against the constitution, which veered the settlement plan to Mogadishu, rumors immerged that he did so to fulfill a sinister mission as part of the business agenda. Shortly after the arrival in Mogadishu, some cabinet Ministers openly reiterated that they were made hostages to Mogadishu business barons. It was a fact that only the President and three other ministers had offices out of the 250 parliamentarians, the rest were kept in heavily guarded lodges. The only contact they had with the public was through the heavily guarded security that told them when to get ready for meeting with the President or to step out for fresh air. It was systemic terror to confiscate power and control.

When the foreign aid spigots broke off and some money poured in, the President implicitly devolved responsibilities upon the mafia rules that did not bother with the conceit of the President but otherwise fettered the intrinsic dominion of the government. The reaction of the parliament was not belated; Dr. Galayr was the first martyr in the struggle for the emancipation of the parliament from the tenacious grip of the robber barons. The Prime Minister got fired while traveling overseas for business trip. The fight continued, more cabinet ministers either left on their own accord or got terminated. At the end, the fiasco got out of control, and both the Speaker of the Parliament and the Prime Minister openly defied Abdikassim’s orders. In this political ordeal, the clan was not a major player, but only used when applicable for interest purpose. It was clash of ideologies – interest groups vs. a political system.

Important observation is the fact that through its entire existence (TNG’ lifespan), neither Abdikassim nor the interest groups had shown mercy for the interest of their clans, let alone the interest of the nation. On the contrary the clan was the victim of their rapacious attitude. If they ever intended to toss a glimpse of pity towards their fellow tribesmen, they would have refrained their thugs from torturing and maiming kids and elders equally in such barbaric fashions. They proved that they don’t care about the plight and abject poverty of their people as long as they indulge in a life of bliss. The picture of Mogadishu yesterday versus Mogadishu today is enough evidence. Abdikassim’s despotic rule that estranged him from every character of his caucus explains that he was in cahoots with those counterfeit barons whose goal in life is just to rob and hoard as much as they can through any venue possible. Recently, when a person named Darman in Mogadishu claimed to be a new Somali president, people got flabbergasted with the fear that new political confrontation may create more chaos to the ill-fated city of Mogadishu. Reliable sources indicated that the whole episode was meant to release millions of Somali counterfeit money from Indonesia or Singapore, typical mafia style of robbing the poor people.

Now is the time the clan card is playable. The TNG is history, both the international community and majority of the political factions in Nairobi disowned Abdikassim, including his own TNG representatives. Mr. Abdikassim might be feeling humiliation and despair, but the rich mafia rules of Mogadishu do feel apprehension and uncertainty from the prospects of the Nairobi conference. It is very likely that the mafia rules would use everything at their disposal – their weapons, wealth and the doomed President’s natural talents (his astuteness and flamboyant articulation) to instigate resistance through different media to prepare for war if challenged in Mogadishu. Their chances to mobilize effective clan solidarity are unpredictable as the outcome from the Nairobi conference is unpredictable as well.

Federalism is not revelation from God, and there could be better models that the nation could convalesce more effectively, but the reality is that we are not morally yet up to that level of transcendence. The common wisdom is “ if you cannot find what you need, do what is rational”. Abdikassim’s condemnation of federalism as a deceitful measure that will ruin the nation is outdated. His reasoning is identical to that of a French princess or queen who said to hungry revolting peasants, “if they cannot find bread why don’t they eat cake”. Federalism will not hurt us unless we choose so. It is quite imperative at this stage that we give chance to every vision that would bring our sovereignty as a nation back. And it would be wise if we avail from the past mistakes, and don’t let evil to keep us in vain.

Burhan Alas